Demand Mapping

Demand mapping is a geospatial technique that estimates and visualizes the geographic distribution of potential consumer demand. Rather than looking at where sales currently occur, demand mapping projects where sales could occur based on population characteristics, spending patterns, competitive supply, and accessibility. The result is a map—typically a heat mapHeat MapA heat map is a data visualization technique that uses color gradients to represent the intensity or density of a var..., gridded surface, or choropleth—that highlights areas of high latent demand relative to existing supply.

Demand mapping begins with estimating total addressable demand in each geographic unit—such as a census block groupBlock GroupA Block Group is a census geographic unit that is the smallest area for which the Census Bureau publishes sample (Ame..., zip code, or hexagonal grid cell—using demographic data, consumer expenditure surveys, and industry benchmarks. Analysts then overlay existing supply by mapping current store locations (both the brand's own and competitors') and estimating their capacity to absorb demand. The gap between estimated demand and captured supply reveals areas of opportunity. Gravity models, spatial interaction models, or machine learning algorithms may refine the estimates by accounting for distance decay, travel patterns, and competitive attractiveness.

Demand mapping relies on population counts, household income, age distribution, lifestyle segmentation, and category-specific spending propensities. Supply-side inputs include store locations, formats, sizes, and estimated revenue. Transportation networks and drive-time data help model the accessibility of each demand zone to existing supply points.

Retail expansion teams use demand maps to prioritize markets and sites that offer the highest incremental revenue potential. Franchise development teams present demand maps to prospective franchisees to demonstrate market opportunity. Marketing teams use demand mapping to allocate media budgets geographically—spending more in areas where demand is high but brand awareness is low. Healthcare systems use similar approaches to plan clinic and hospital locations based on patient demand projections.

Demand mapping transforms abstract market data into a visual, intuitive format that accelerates decision-making. It enables objective comparison of markets and sites, reducing reliance on subjective judgment or anecdotal market knowledge.

The accuracy of demand maps depends on the quality and granularity of input data. Spending propensity estimates may not capture local preferences, and competitive supply data can be incomplete or outdated. Demand is also dynamic—population growth, new developments, and economic shifts can rapidly change the landscape. Demand mapping is a strategic tool that bridges market research and location planning. By revealing where opportunity concentrates geographically, it enables brands to deploy capital and resources where they will generate the greatest return.